Jan
28
2016
Why being right can lead you to be wrong: the ‘Ah-hah I told you so’ bias
By Peter Sheridan.
I was running a workshop on decision making recently and there are lots of reasons why people make poor business decisions. The grand-daddy of them all is often called ‘confirmation bias’ but I prefer to call it the ‘Ah-hah I told you so’ bias.
We all love to be right about something. Whether it is some obscure sporting trivia, a prediction on what is going to happen in a situation or one of the many choices we make. But thinking this way can lead us down a blind alley.
A favourite illustration of this is asking someone to swap their Apple iPhone for the latest corresponding Android model, say a Samsung. Real Apple fans will never, EVER volunteer to swap their phone. Why? Well, it’s cooler, easier to use and looks better. But is this really true or is it just that they are emotionally invested in the idea of an iPhone and how cool they are? To change your mind you would have to admit you were wrong, something we all hate.
But it goes further than this. Our bias makes us actively seek out information that confirms we were right all along. Take a look at these headlines and ask yourself which would an Apple fan read and would they bother reading the others?
“Samsung Galaxy S7 could be the very best looking smartphone EVER”
“Huawei taking on Apple and Samsung in smartphone wars”
“Apple iPhone 6s Plus clobbers Android smartphones in benchmark test”
So when making an important decision consider your ‘Ah-hah I told you so’ bias and make sure you actively consider the alternatives. This will improve your decision making even if it doesn’t convince you to change your smartphone.
[“Hey Peter, what smartphone do you have?”…. “I have a Samsung and my next phone will be a Samsung because they are the best”….hmm I wonder if I have confirmation bias against Apple?]
